There is no doubt that we are living in a changing world, one that is changing much more rapidly than even climate scientists had forecast. There are growing instances of extreme weather, rising temperatures in zones that previously had mild or even cool summers, and droughts in regions that have always been associated with bread-basket harvests. The questions are: what types of changes are occurring and are these changes causing further change? Secondly, how are our activities contributing to the problem and what must we do to moderate the situation?
In the first place, it is fairly obvious, to all but a few die-hard ostriches, that climate change and global warming are here to stay. What is not so obvious is how to cope with them. Extreme hurricanes in the southern U.S., massive typhoons in Asia, and untoward storms on the west coast of North America are partnered with droughts in the wheat belts and heat waves in Europe. A June, 2007 CBC news report warned that “Tornado Alley,” so long associated with the mid-central United States, may become a fact of life in Manitoba, Canada. Not only were more tornadoes reported in Manitoba, their intensity was also much greater. Danny Blair, a climatologist at the University of Winnipeg, stated in a CBC report that: “It’s very unusual to see an F-4 tornado in Manitoba, and indeed in Canada.” He also warned that the province should start preparing for more greater-intensity tornadoes.
Non-scientific residents of Manitoba are wondering the same thing. Doug Chorney, a Manitoba farmer and executive member of the Keystone Agricultural Producers was also interviewed for the CBC article. “Farmers are seeing a lot of change in the weather. We’ve seen more extreme weather events. It’s been a real challenge to grow and harvest any kind of crop in Manitoba in the last few years.”
Though there have some studies, notably by Knutson, a meteorologist with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, that suggest the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall over the next decade or two, most scientists doubt the claim. Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane meteorologist with MIT, states that Knutson’s study is “demonstrably wrong,” as the model does not look properly at storms. Kevin Trenberth, the climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, agrees with Emanuel. He states that it is not just the number of hurricanes that is important, but also “the intensity, duration and size, and this study falls short on these issues.”
There is more to extreme weather and global warming than just storms, however. Tom Spears, a writer with the ‘The Ottawa Citizen,’ reports on a study that questions whether soot from Asian factories is not the cause of severe storms that hit the Pacific Coast, such as the one that demolished Vancouver’s Stanley Park in December, 2006. Spear’s March, 2007 article quotes the research team as saying that floating soot particles, often from India and China, cause an increase in the intensity and number of storms reaching the west coast of North America, particularly B.C. The investigation team states that these minute particles, or aerosols, affect the Pacific storm track which “…is climatically significant.” The team’s study, led by Nobel Prize-winner Mario Molina, has been of comparatively short duration. They compared the period 1984 to 1994 to the period 1994-2004 and found that storm activity increased between 20 and 50 percent during the second decade.
The amount of particulate and soot in the air has a direct affect on what happens to North America, says Amir Shabbar, a Pacific storm expert with Environment Canada. Quoted by Spears, Mr. Shabbar states that, “What happens in the North Pacific is of great importance to North America. …it influences what we’re going to get. It does have a profound effect on Western Canada, mainly up to the Prairies, but sometimes into Ontario.”
Coal is a prime contributor to aerosols and particulate matter. According to the Pew Center for Global Climate Change, coal use, especially for the generation of electricity, now accounts for 20 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These emissions are expected to rise as increased energy needs in China, India, and the U.S. drive up demand. For the developing powerhouses of India and China, coal appears to be the best option because it is cheap, about $1.00 to $2.00 MMBtu, compared to oil and natural gas at $6.00 to $12.000 MMBtu.
Furthermore, GHG emissions from coal are significant and growing at a steady rate. At the present time, the U.S. discharges two billion tons of CO2, from coal-burning power plants, while 68% of India’s CO2 emissions are from coal. China’s coal output has risen from 1.3 billion tons in 2000, to 2.23 billion tons in 2005, making this nation second only to the U.S. in coal production. In addition, over 80% of China’s electricity generation is fueled by coal.
Greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol particulate are having undeniable effects on our weather and our environment. The Arctic icecap declined to a record minimum size in 2007, according to the Pew Center for Global Climate Change. Many climatologists are suggesting that global warming is melting not only the polar sea ice, but also the permafrost on the land, which allows the ground to absorb more heat, (dark colours attract and hold heat.) This cycle further thaws the permafrost, letting off more greenhouse gases, exposing more land, and creating more heat. In this way, the rate of melt in the Arctic, combined with the action of pollution in the atmosphere, shrunk the maximum winter ice coverage for March, 2007 to an all-time low. Last year’s summer ice melt figures for June and July showed an unexpected surge, leading to record low sea ice extent for August.
The massive ice reduction in the Arctic has, and will lead to, rising sea levels. A March 28, 2007 ‘Associated Press’ article warned that more than two-thirds of the world’s largest cities are vulnerable to global warming and rising sea levels. This situation will put millions of people at risk of major flooding and intense storms. The data, taken from the journal ‘Environment and Urbanization, states that 634 million people live on coastal areas the world over. Coastal areas are defined as being less than 33 feet above sea level, and cities such as Tokyo, New York, Mumbai, Shanghai, Jakarta, and Dhaka fit the definition.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concurs with the warnings stated in ‘Environment and Urbanization.’ In a report published in April, 2007, the IPCC warned that coastlines are already showing the results of rising water levels and that, by 2080, about 100 million people each could lose their land. Furthermore, rising ocean levels will increase the length, intensity, and number of major storms. Finally, the report predicts that Los Angeles and New York, the two largest American cities, will face both rising sea levels and increased violent storms.
Warming is also taking place in Antarctica, but there, due to more ocean surface and less land expanse, the warming rate is slower. Changes are still occurring, however, and we must be aware of them. As a species, we must lower GHG, reduce the aerosol and particulate levels in the atmosphere, and foster a completely new way of treating the environment. Until now, we have had outrageous belief that we are masters of our fate. We are not; we are animals just as the other creatures that fly in the air, walk on the land, or swim in the water. The difference is that we can kill everything. We do not have that right.
