The Summer Olympics start today, on 08-08-08. Why is this important? In Chinese culture this number is lucky. And I’m going to make a few predictions.
1. Tourists will not come but events will be full.
I make this unpopular conclusion based on the Summer Olympics held in Munich, Moscow, Montreal, Los Angeles and Athens, to name just a few. Experience and statistics showed that the great appeal of this concentrated, two-week activity extended to families and friends of the athletes, sports fans and locals who can afford the price for event tickets. Tourists just didn't come in the numbers that the sponsors of the Games predicted. The events will fill with locals, maybe even for free.
This is a bad year for travel. The U.S stock market has fallen. Gas is high. There’s worries and fear all over the place. All this doesn’t bode well for tourism.
According to statistics released by the Chinese authorities, about 420,000 tourists went to Beijing last August. This year, even with the Games, the number is only expected to rise by about 10 percent. Which means a lot of the 13,000 new hotel rooms opened in time for the Olympics will be empty. At least that many more rooms are under construction, too, and Beijing shows all the signs of being a city with a glut of hotels. Does it really need the 50 five-star hotels that are now scattered around town?
2. There will be a huge deficit.
The Greeks amassed a loss of $10 billion while hosting this competition. At least a part of that came from the lack of visitors. I heard just the other day that the actual figure is closer to $15 billion.
We've only got to take a look at some of the issues in play in China to confirm one more time just how political and politicized the Olympics have become.
3. Pollution will be an issue.
There is the much-publicized air pollution in Beijing, reflecting China's head-over-heels rush into the latest Industrial Revolution. It's a blight that Beijing's city fathers have been trying to lessen, if not eliminate, in time for August 8. It's anybody's guess whether they will be successful, but I've heard talk among the athletes about wearing masks to alleviate the problem.
4. Political events will overshadow the events.
There's the constant dilemma of Tibet, with more than 100 deaths in that occupied Himalayan land due to sporadic uprisings by the monks who follow the Dalai Lama, their exiled spiritual leader. There have been all manner of dustups over Internet access, the worldwide Torch relay, the ability of news organizations to film and broadcast from Tiananmen Square and, of course, the ongoing controversy surrounding which, and how many, world leaders may "boycott" the Games by skipping tomorrow's opening ceremonies. This week's terrorist attack in Kashgar killed 16 police officers and shed new light on the separatist ambitions of Xinjiang, China's westernmost province and a majority Muslim region.
Despite this, I understand China's underlying principle for investing billions to host the Olympics. They are using it to showcase the growth that this communist-turned-capitalist society has achieved in recent decades. Its social problems notwithstanding, China’s growth is one hell of a story. But remember, Montreal in 1976 also had its share of challenges, and this wonderful Canadian City is still paying off the debt incurred to sponsor the game.
Finally, one other Olympic idiosyncrasy worth noting: The Games may not be good for the long-term survival of the current government of China. Why? The Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet block began disintegrating in 1989, nine years after the Moscow Games. And Hitler's Thousand Year Reich fell in 1945, nine years after the 1936 Olympics in Berlin. Curious, but inviting, rumor.
I wish China the best of luck with the Games. Let’s hope 08-08-08 is lucky and my predictions are shown to be false.
